The UK General Election was on Thursday 8th June

General Elections are important events – and you have helped predict the winner.

  1. We didn’t want to know your vote. We don’t care who you voted for – it’s private, and it’s your choice alone
  2. We did want to know who you think would win – your opinion on this was important

The outcome of your clicks are below.

Thank you

As a thank you for your 'thinking' time (and your muscle action), if you give an email address we'll send you the final results of this poll after the General Election so you can compare the two.

Scroll down if you'd like to know more about the background to this study.


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For the curious

1. Why do we want to know how you think everyone else will vote?

Your opinion on everyone else's vote is often more accurate than any other way of polling. In this regard we are using this question as a proxy for recognition, and wisdom of crowds.

Recognition Heuristic
A sense of collective recognition was shown to allow for more accurate forecasts in many domains, including elections (Gassmeier & Marewski, 2011). As in many other areas of life, voters use heuristics to aid decision making. For example, they take the electability of a candidate into account just as much as, or even more, their manifestos and ideology (Stone & Abramowitz, 1983). Using the recognition heuristic can also help ignorant voters to identify likely winners, or eliminate potential losers from consideration (Marewski et al., 2009, 2010).

Wisdom of crowds
Wisdom of the crowds was first investigated over a 100 years ago by Francis Galton (1907). Over the years, it has been shown that averaging the predictions of many people significantly improves the forecasts about future or vague events, or unknown quantities - as well as election results (Sjoberg, 2009). Recognition heuristic could aid this phenomenon, that's why it is worth looking at them together.

2. Why don't we want to know your specific voting intention?

Typical polls can be inaccurate for undecided or wavering voters because we (as individuals) don't have a way of controlling for our momentary political preferences or moods, and ignore the power of mere recognition, or the impact of explicit versus implicit attitudes and their importance in affecting (those of us who are) undecided voters.

Typical polls rely on intention-based election forecasts – simply asking who or what your vote will be. They are weighted in order to accurately represent the electorate. However, this intention-action gap delivers errors. Also, public expression of political affiliation – even to a stranger/poll – can be affected by the context and the people to whom one is asked to express a voting intention.

Your vote, your voice, your choice
Obviously, if we asked you 'how you will vote?' (rather than asking you 'who you think will win?' as we are here) it would not be recorded on a piece of paper, officially count towards the actual vote, nor will it be subject to corruption, but the principle remains – it's your vote, your voice, your choice, and you owe no one an explanation for it, nor an expression of it (least of all to us).

How voting is managed in the UK
Under the Representation of the People Act 1983, the Returning Officer, usually a senior official of the local council, has to ensure that all ballot papers, counterfoils and the polling clerks' marked copies of the electoral register are safely deposited with the Clerk of the Crown in Chancery. This is so that if any corrupt or illegal election practices are reported the appropriate documents are available for inspection.